risk-and-psychology

Methodology inspired by publicly taught trading frameworks; all text is an original paraphrase.

Defaults

Parameter	Default Value	Rationale
lookback_quarters	4	Standard window for risk-and-psychology

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md. Include the X-Agentii-Trace header on every tool call per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md — carry the _run_id from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned).

Data Source Priority

1. Knowledge entries (frameworks) -> 2. search_by_analogue for historical analogues -> 3. Real-time context

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

structured_only

Retrieval Strategy

Query knowledge entries for risk-and-psychology frameworks; query search_by_analogue for historical analogues.

Temporal Scope

See frontmatter temporal_scope block.

Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter allowed_tools.

Protocol

1. Framework selection
2. Signal analysis
3. Analogue retrieval
4. Risk assessment

Output File

{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_risk-and-psychology_{affix}.md

Output Structure

1. Executive Summary — key findings in 2-3 sentences
2. Core Analysis — applied frameworks with specific evidence
3. Quantitative Indicators — key metrics and benchmarks
4. Historical Analogues — matched cases with /v/ citations
5. Risk Assessment — key risk factors and mitigants
6. Coverage Gaps — data limitations and degraded flags

Error Handling

Error	Fallback
No frameworks	Proceed with standard indicators; flag degraded

Memory Load

See contracts/memory-load.md.

Snapshot

See contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs.

References

• contracts/citation-and-memory.md
• contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md
• contracts/memory-load.md
• contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md
• contracts/preflight.md