Scenario

Model financial scenarios for "$ARGUMENTS". Build structured best/base/worst-case projections to understand the range of possible outcomes and prepare contingency plans.

Arguments. $ARGUMENTS may contain the project name and optional flags. Take the first token as <project> and treat --skip-checks as a flag; never include flags in file paths. All paths below use <project>. If --skip-checks is present, skip the prerequisite check and, before writing any artifact, append one line to .metapowers/finance/<project>/skip-log.md: - <ISO timestamp> — <skill name> skipped prerequisite check for <artifact file> — reason: <reason or "none given">.

Compute with code. Perform every calculation (totals, balances, ratios, variances, projections) with a script — Bash, Python or a spreadsheet formula written to a file — and include the computation alongside the result. Never do arithmetic mentally.

Prerequisites

None — utility skill, run anytime. Works best when financial data exists in .metapowers/finance/<project>/.

Process

1. Gather context:

   • If prior phase artifacts exist, read them for baseline data
   • Ask the user what decision or question the scenarios should inform
   • Determine the time horizon for the scenarios

2. Define scenario parameters:

   • Identify the 5-8 key variables that drive outcomes (revenue growth, churn, ARPU, hiring pace, etc.)
   • For each variable, define best/base/worst values with rationale
   • Reference ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/shared/financial-model-template.md for scenario table structure

3. Build three scenarios:

   • Best case: optimistic but plausible assumptions
   • Base case: most likely outcome based on current trajectory
   • Worst case: pessimistic but survivable assumptions
   • For each: project revenue, expenses, cash flow, and runway

4. Analyze implications:

   • What decisions change between scenarios?
   • At what point does the worst case become dangerous?
   • What early warning signals distinguish which scenario is unfolding?
   • What contingency actions should be prepared?

5. Write the artifact to .metapowers/finance/<project>/scenario.md with sections:

   • Scenario Question — what decision this analysis informs
   • Variable Assumptions — table of inputs per scenario
   • Scenario Projections — financial outcomes per scenario
   • Decision Triggers — signals that indicate which scenario is playing out
   • Contingency Plans — actions to take in each scenario

Output

The scenario analysis written to .metapowers/finance/<project>/scenario.md. Present a summary highlighting:

• Range of outcomes (worst to best)
• Key differentiating variables
• Decision triggers and contingency plans

End the artifact with this paragraph, verbatim:

Not financial or tax advice. This artifact is generated analysis for review by a qualified accountant or financial professional before any filing, reporting or decision relies on it.