Sensitivity

Analyze variable sensitivity for "$ARGUMENTS". Determine which inputs have the greatest impact on key financial outputs to prioritize risk management and decision-making.

Arguments. $ARGUMENTS may contain the project name and optional flags. Take the first token as <project> and treat --skip-checks as a flag; never include flags in file paths. All paths below use <project>. If --skip-checks is present, skip the prerequisite check and, before writing any artifact, append one line to .metapowers/finance/<project>/skip-log.md: - <ISO timestamp> — <skill name> skipped prerequisite check for <artifact file> — reason: <reason or "none given">.

Compute with code. Perform every calculation (totals, balances, ratios, variances, projections) with a script — Bash, Python or a spreadsheet formula written to a file — and include the computation alongside the result. Never do arithmetic mentally.

Prerequisites

None — utility skill, run anytime. Works best when financial data exists in .metapowers/finance/<project>/.

Process

1. Gather context:

   • If prior phase artifacts exist, read them for baseline assumptions
   • Identify the output metrics to test (revenue, EBITDA, cash runway, valuation)
   • Determine the base case values for all input variables

2. Select variables to test:

   • Revenue drivers: growth rate, churn rate, ARPU, conversion rate
   • Cost drivers: headcount, cost per hire, vendor costs, COGS
   • Capital drivers: payment terms, collection period, funding timing
   • Choose 6-10 variables with the most uncertainty

3. Run one-at-a-time analysis:

   • For each variable, calculate the output when the variable moves +/- 10%, 20%, 30%
   • Hold all other variables constant at base case
   • Rank variables by impact magnitude (tornado chart data)

4. Run two-variable data tables:

   • Pick the top 2-3 most impactful variables
   • Create data tables showing output for combinations of values
   • Identify "danger zones" where combinations produce unacceptable outcomes

5. Identify breakeven thresholds:

   • For each key variable, find the value at which the business breaks even
   • Calculate the margin of safety (how far current value is from breakeven)

6. Write the artifact to .metapowers/finance/<project>/sensitivity.md with sections:

   • Variables Tested — list of inputs, base values, and ranges
   • Tornado Chart Data — ranked impact of each variable on key outputs
   • Data Tables — two-variable sensitivity matrices
   • Breakeven Thresholds — critical values for each variable
   • Risk Prioritization — which variables to monitor most closely

Output

The sensitivity analysis written to .metapowers/finance/<project>/sensitivity.md. Present a summary highlighting:

• Top 3 most impactful variables
• Breakeven thresholds for critical inputs
• Highest-risk combinations

End the artifact with this paragraph, verbatim:

Not financial or tax advice. This artifact is generated analysis for review by a qualified accountant or financial professional before any filing, reporting or decision relies on it.