Sales Forecast

When to use

Use this at forecast time when you have a set of open deals and need a defensible number for the period — with reasoning a manager can challenge and the gaps you must close to hit quota.

Not for: deal-by-deal coaching and hygiene (use sales-pipeline-review); daily action ranking (use sales-daily-briefing). Forecast answers "what number will land," not "what to work today."

Method

1. Set the frame. Confirm the period, the quota/target, and any already-closed-won bookings.
2. Normalize each deal. Capture amount, stage, close date, and a probability — using stage defaults adjusted for real signals (engagement, next step set, champion strength). Decision point: close date outside the period → exclude from this forecast, note in pipeline.
3. Categorize. Sort into Commit (high confidence, will close), Best Case/Upside (possible, not banked), and Pipeline (early, this-period unlikely).
4. Compute scenarios. Worst = closed-won + rock-solid commits. Likely = commit + probability-weighted best case. Best = commit + full best case.
5. Weight the total. Sum amount × probability for the weighted forecast.
6. Gap analysis. Compare each scenario to target; state the shortfall and what must convert to close it. Decision point: likely < target → identify the smallest set of upside deals that closes the gap and name their blockers.
7. Flag risk. Call out slipping dates, no next step, or single-threaded contacts that inflate the number.

Example

Target $500K, closed-won $180K. Commit deals total $200K; best case $220K at ~40% avg. Worst = $380K. Likely = $180K + $200K + ($220K×0.4) = $468K. Best = $600K. Weighted forecast $468K. Gap to target = $32K under on likely → the $80K "Globex" upside deal (blocker: security review) closes the gap if it converts. At-risk: "Initech" $90K commit has no next step and one contact — downgrade to best case.

Pitfalls

• Stage-default probabilities as gospel. A Stage-4 deal with no champion is not 80%; adjust for real signals.
• Sandbagging or happy ears. Both destroy trust; the number must be defensible either way.
• Single-thread inflation. One-contact deals routinely slip; weight them down.
• Ignoring close-date slip. A deal that keeps moving right is not a commit.

Output format

Period & target: <one line, incl. closed-won>
Scenario summary: worst $<> | likely $<> | best $<>
Commit vs. upside:
  Commit $<>: <deals>
  Upside $<>: <deals>
Weighted forecast: $<> (sum amount × probability)
Gap to target: $<> — must close: <deals/actions>
At-risk deals:
  - <deal> — <risk> — forecast impact: $<>
Assumptions: <probabilities & stage defaults used>